Happy Oscar Day!

I'm going out on a limb and, for fun, publishing a few predictions for tonight's winners. Some of my guesses are kind of informed, and some, well, I may as well be throwing a dart. Some of my picks are based on hope, and some based on cynicism. (Academy voters can be dopes, and I'm still pretty bitter about this and this.) Anyway, here I go. Let's hope that when it's all over, I don't have to eat too much crow:

Best Picture: "The Social Network" (although I think "The King's Speech" should win) x 
Best Director: David Fincher, "The Social Network" x
Best Actor: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech" √
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan" √
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, "The Fighter" √
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, "The Fighter" √
Best Animated Feature Film: "Toy Story 3" √
Best Art Direction: "Inception" x
Cinematography: "The King's Speech" x
Costume Design: "I Am Love" x
Best Feature Documentary: "Inside Job" √
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): "The Social Network" √
Writing (Original Screenplay): "The King's Speech" √

Photo by Laura Muir

The strum of a ukulele will never be the same again

Blue Valentine is as intense, raw and heartbreaking as everybody says it is. Indeed, I haven't been as unhinged by a relationship drama since watching Brokeback Mountain. I'm not sure why it didn't get more Oscar nods including a nomination for Best Picture, instead of The Kids Are All Right, and one for Best Actor for Ryan Gosling's performance. (As you probably know, Michelle Williams is up for Best Actress.)

I like how writer/director Derek Cianfrance explains the movie in this interview: "I wanted the past to feel like they were fish in the ocean and the present to feel like they were in a bucket."
And just something to keep in mind: instead of quickly getting up and putting on your coat after the last scene, pay attention to the closing credits. You'll see what I mean.
Photo by Laura Muir

Highly recommended

Renting Winter's Bone was a good decision on my part. I loved the backwoods dialogue and the menacing characters (including Arkansas's Ozark Mountain area itself).

"Never ask for what oughta be offered." Mark my words, this scene is going to be shown at the Oscars. It's a pivotal moment when we discover what 17-year-old Ree Dolly is all about — tough and principled. On a side note: Jennifer Lawrence (who plays Ree) looks a lot like Renee Zellweger, without the weird facial expressions.
Photos by Laura Muir